lately i've been going through my scan and wondered...what moves commodities? how can commodity prices move up and down and what affect does that have on the economy / markets?
so i googled a few pages and found some interesting stuff. commodities affect the whole economy by changing the price of goods. if cotton goes up, clothing goes up and this increases the sales revenues of vendors / companies and decreases the pocket change of your average consumer. this applies to oil as well, and if oil goes down, well everyone has some extra money to spend and money will circulate through the economy. most of what i read involves how many exchanges hands. so even though i don't know much about money circulation and its effect on the economy, i'm sure i will in the near future.
this brings me to inflation; the latter topic i stumbled upon. inflation also has to do with money circulation as well. many economists believe that inflation and hyperinflation is caused by money pumping by the central banks. funny thing is that i read an article maybe 2 months ago that Ben Bernanke (currently the chairman of the US federal reserve) has been pumping money into the economy like CRAZYYYY trying to turn around our current "recession". i still don't really understand how we are in a recession. so i guess those are all inter-related into the markets and economy.
i also read about bonds and interest rates. interest rates go up, bond values go down because at the time the current bond was purchased, it would've had a lower interest rate. currently our us interest rate is 0.25. if you look at the history if american interest rate, 0.25 is probably one of the lowest possible. i saw some shit that in 1980's the interest rate was like 20%. wtf? 20%? that is better than any market return ever. i am curious to why the interest rate is so low and the govt is encouraging spending...i feel as though we are not in a recession but they found a way to keep interest rates low to encourage spending and drink all that milk that pours into corporate america.
anyway...i have a new goal. currently my trading is doing pretty well. started with $10,000 in my acct in april and at 11,128. have been ups and downs but have learned from a lot of my mistakes. shorting stocks definitely takes a lot of precision and tracking of the stock. can't just go short assuming that because the price is going to fall, it will fall at that exact time. also, news matters!!! always make sure you know when the earnings announcements are coming out and if there are also any big hype news coming. i shorted bbry right before the bbry 10 came into the market. hahaha smh. well i learned my lesson from that short, because it costed me around $800. my risk is still very high in my trades. trading with almost my entire capital. however many of the trades, i am confident will not go against me so much that it will threaten my capital. most of them i have been watching for a while and also i understand much more how the market moves from looking at charts alot. it's crazy because i can tell how a stock will move based on its chart but i cannot verbalize it. i just pay attention to volume, day candlesticks, week candlestcks, and month candlestick and look at the general market. actually the general market has very little to do with the stocks i even trade. they have a life of its own, so i learned to also eliminate that from the equation. minute charts also help to figure out at what point in the day is best to buy/sell.
i digress, my goal is to raise my capital from 10,000 to 20,000. use 10,000 as a trading account and 10,000 as an investment account. once i reach that point, i will have two "separate" accounts have use my funds for one strictly for trading and strictly for investing. this will give me the ability to track my progress and also not worry so much about the volatility of daytrading for my investing account.
also, confidence matters. faith.
Thursday, May 9, 2013
Monday, May 6, 2013
Trading Techniques
To end up being a great trader its like being great in any other activity. It takes practices, regardless of what AI says. So to give myself some assignments, I will perfect a few methods of trading that will allow me to eventually become submerged enough to touch other areas of trading that I may not have thought of before. I will first learn how to use the fibonacci retracement technique.
WTFFF THIS MOTHA FUCKA NEXT TO ME AT THE BOSTON AIRPORT IS ANNOYING AS FUCK.
...
I will also learn the CANSLIM method of investing. These are my two assignments. Learn everything about these two techniques and try and apply them to my daily trades. Even though CANSLIM will not really help me with my trading, I believe I can use CANSLIM to leave my money idle in investments while searching for something tradeable. or CANSLIM in conjuction of my daily scans can reduce risk.
so canslim and fibonacci, and also look at my encyclopedia of trading patterns to determine what type of charts do best in a bull market.
omg this guy...
pz
WTFFF THIS MOTHA FUCKA NEXT TO ME AT THE BOSTON AIRPORT IS ANNOYING AS FUCK.
...
I will also learn the CANSLIM method of investing. These are my two assignments. Learn everything about these two techniques and try and apply them to my daily trades. Even though CANSLIM will not really help me with my trading, I believe I can use CANSLIM to leave my money idle in investments while searching for something tradeable. or CANSLIM in conjuction of my daily scans can reduce risk.
so canslim and fibonacci, and also look at my encyclopedia of trading patterns to determine what type of charts do best in a bull market.
omg this guy...
pz
economic conditions
current economic data:
unemployment stayed the same, its lower since the beginning of 2013 at 7.5%, down .4% since January.
sectors that are seeing increase in employment are professional and business services. these two classes had an increase in employment by 73,000 jobs in april. also, for the month of february and march, the unemployment numbers were inaccurate and actually underestimated employment. this is a very bullish sign.
health care and retail jobs also increased in employment.
following stockbee market breadth, he says that low cap stocks retraced its gains and the market breadth is thin and will have a 8-10% pullback.
looking at the candlestick pattern, markets are making all time highs and quickly bounced back from the major down days. also, many companies are making breakthrough earnings and beating estimates. the market is making new highs, but volume for this past week is not as high so it might not be as convincing of a push. we will see what happens.
nasdaq has been hot this past week. again, we'll see what happens there. many downtrodden stocks have actually benefited from this hot streak in nasdaq. possible shorts. i see csiq and sol which are two solar companies that do not have fundamentally sound financials. well i need to learn more about financials before i can actually assess the situation. will ask leon questions about financials.
for now, continue to look at economic data, go through my daily scans for longs. market outlook is still a bull market unless stuff goes down. look at the nasdaq sector for shorts.
arna also went down after Q1 earnings announcement. I believe that they will probably drop drastically. currently priced at $7.63.
anyway i will slowly keep getting better at trading and get better at staying consistent with my trades. will need to work to develop my own market breadth sheet / metric to understand what is going on.
random fact: asians have the lowest unemployment race out of all other ethnicity categories in the unemployment financials. haha yeee
-tptrail
unemployment stayed the same, its lower since the beginning of 2013 at 7.5%, down .4% since January.
sectors that are seeing increase in employment are professional and business services. these two classes had an increase in employment by 73,000 jobs in april. also, for the month of february and march, the unemployment numbers were inaccurate and actually underestimated employment. this is a very bullish sign.
health care and retail jobs also increased in employment.
following stockbee market breadth, he says that low cap stocks retraced its gains and the market breadth is thin and will have a 8-10% pullback.
looking at the candlestick pattern, markets are making all time highs and quickly bounced back from the major down days. also, many companies are making breakthrough earnings and beating estimates. the market is making new highs, but volume for this past week is not as high so it might not be as convincing of a push. we will see what happens.
nasdaq has been hot this past week. again, we'll see what happens there. many downtrodden stocks have actually benefited from this hot streak in nasdaq. possible shorts. i see csiq and sol which are two solar companies that do not have fundamentally sound financials. well i need to learn more about financials before i can actually assess the situation. will ask leon questions about financials.
for now, continue to look at economic data, go through my daily scans for longs. market outlook is still a bull market unless stuff goes down. look at the nasdaq sector for shorts.
arna also went down after Q1 earnings announcement. I believe that they will probably drop drastically. currently priced at $7.63.
anyway i will slowly keep getting better at trading and get better at staying consistent with my trades. will need to work to develop my own market breadth sheet / metric to understand what is going on.
random fact: asians have the lowest unemployment race out of all other ethnicity categories in the unemployment financials. haha yeee
-tptrail
Saturday, September 15, 2012
some patterns
The basic patterns that nate uses for longs and shorts are:
Gearing / Perking
Late Day Fades
Parabolic Shorts
Red to Green on a recent high average daily range stock
also he mentions in chat that many people mention HOD. that makes sense if you want to capture very short term profits by shorting when it reaches near HOD or LOD.
Also, I mentioned about having goals to develop myself in a learning capacity in regards to the market. It is always good to learn.
BUT it is more important to put in place what you learn. So I need to also set goals each time I trade or each week/month on what I need to improve on and ACT upon my goals. Not just learn, learning will only take me so far. But creating feasible/tangible action items for physically improving is vital.
I want to improve my risk management techniques and also execute less trades. Maybe only 1 or 2 trades a week that I believe are TRULY worthwhile. I will set a limit of at maximum 2 trades per week, which will allow me to focus more on finding setups I believe are going to go in my favor under the right market conditions. Also, I want to document my trades and my thoughts and my exit plan / entry plan on each trade I place from now on.
Currently holding on to $CLSN @ 5.00, short 300 shares. Will cover if it closes over 5.20. Plan on holding for 1 week, however, if it falls very steep which is what I believe will happen, I will and hold until the selling dries up.
Gearing / Perking
Late Day Fades
Parabolic Shorts
Red to Green on a recent high average daily range stock
also he mentions in chat that many people mention HOD. that makes sense if you want to capture very short term profits by shorting when it reaches near HOD or LOD.
Also, I mentioned about having goals to develop myself in a learning capacity in regards to the market. It is always good to learn.
BUT it is more important to put in place what you learn. So I need to also set goals each time I trade or each week/month on what I need to improve on and ACT upon my goals. Not just learn, learning will only take me so far. But creating feasible/tangible action items for physically improving is vital.
I want to improve my risk management techniques and also execute less trades. Maybe only 1 or 2 trades a week that I believe are TRULY worthwhile. I will set a limit of at maximum 2 trades per week, which will allow me to focus more on finding setups I believe are going to go in my favor under the right market conditions. Also, I want to document my trades and my thoughts and my exit plan / entry plan on each trade I place from now on.
Currently holding on to $CLSN @ 5.00, short 300 shares. Will cover if it closes over 5.20. Plan on holding for 1 week, however, if it falls very steep which is what I believe will happen, I will and hold until the selling dries up.
Thursday, September 13, 2012
Challenges
Every challenging situation we face is a source of stress. Every challenging situation we face is also a potential source of well-being - and a potential source of distress.
If we reduce our stress by eliminating life's challenges, we also reduce our avenues for well-being and fulfillment.
If we reduce our stress by eliminating life's challenges, we also reduce our avenues for well-being and fulfillment.
Implicit Learning
Today's subject will be implicit learning.
"Implicit learning is the learning of complex information in an incidental manner, without awareness of what has been learned." - Cambridge
Looking over thousands of chart patterns and market fluctuations can help with your implicit learning of the market and possibly future predictions*.
What is said through research studies is that implicit learning is drastically affected when the individual is not directing his full attention to the task at hand. Stay focused!
*may vary from person to person
Side note, something I learned today, stay hungry and just do it. If it crosses your mind and you want to do it, just do it. Do it first, do it fast. Get it done. Bottom line is there are no excuses. Make your goals your priorities, do what it takes.
"Implicit learning is the learning of complex information in an incidental manner, without awareness of what has been learned." - Cambridge
Looking over thousands of chart patterns and market fluctuations can help with your implicit learning of the market and possibly future predictions*.
What is said through research studies is that implicit learning is drastically affected when the individual is not directing his full attention to the task at hand. Stay focused!
*may vary from person to person
Side note, something I learned today, stay hungry and just do it. If it crosses your mind and you want to do it, just do it. Do it first, do it fast. Get it done. Bottom line is there are no excuses. Make your goals your priorities, do what it takes.
Tuesday, September 11, 2012
Trading Psychology
For the month of September, I will finish reading Trading Psychology by Brett Steenbarger.
Have only executed one trade this month, however it was a successful one. Shorted ARNA at 8.9 only to see it shoot as high as 9.39. My stop was at 9.40 and I think there must've been some divine intervention because really!?!?... .01 off from getting stopped out?! I would've died.
A few lessons, I was close to covering my position when it didn't start to go my way. Thankfully I was disciplined enough not to. Another note, I need to scale my position sizes better according to the amount of risk I am willing to take. Well 8.9 to 9.4 would've been 100 loss, including 14 trade so that's right around 2%. I guess its not that bad, but it would've hurt really badly as the first trade of the month.
It takes more gains to come back from an original loss.
Ideas I have are creating a system where I will scan for weekly patterns that match my sentiment on the either the direction of the market, or pumped up stocks that have gone "parabolic" according to Nate.
I need a scan for short term buys, short term shorts. Also, interested in predicting the overall market and it's direction. After reading about Trading Psychology I will try and learn more about Market Breadth. Technical Analysis will come next for November.
Goal for the month is $305.10. Let's get it.
"See one, do one, teach one"
Have only executed one trade this month, however it was a successful one. Shorted ARNA at 8.9 only to see it shoot as high as 9.39. My stop was at 9.40 and I think there must've been some divine intervention because really!?!?... .01 off from getting stopped out?! I would've died.
A few lessons, I was close to covering my position when it didn't start to go my way. Thankfully I was disciplined enough not to. Another note, I need to scale my position sizes better according to the amount of risk I am willing to take. Well 8.9 to 9.4 would've been 100 loss, including 14 trade so that's right around 2%. I guess its not that bad, but it would've hurt really badly as the first trade of the month.
It takes more gains to come back from an original loss.
Ideas I have are creating a system where I will scan for weekly patterns that match my sentiment on the either the direction of the market, or pumped up stocks that have gone "parabolic" according to Nate.
I need a scan for short term buys, short term shorts. Also, interested in predicting the overall market and it's direction. After reading about Trading Psychology I will try and learn more about Market Breadth. Technical Analysis will come next for November.
Goal for the month is $305.10. Let's get it.
"See one, do one, teach one"
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